MLB Best Bets of the Day

MLB Best Bets of the Day

Saturday, May 21, 2022

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the day's news and lock at the first pitch.

Here were the MLB Best Bets of the Day for Friday, May 20, 2022.



Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees

Sat 1:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CWS @ NYY is CWS ML +190. Our simulations expect this bet to win 44% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $127 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Dallas Keuchel for CWS and Nestor Cortes for NYY.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Sat 2:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ARI @ CHC is ARI ML +130. Our simulations expect this bet to win 44% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Madison Bumgarner for ARI and Justin Steele for CHC.

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays

Sat 3:07 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CIN @ TOR is CIN ML +215. Our simulations expect this bet to win 38% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $119 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Hunter Greene for CIN and Alek Manoah for TOR.

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Sat 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SD @ SF is SF -1.5 +150. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Joe Musgrove for SD and Carlos Rodon for SF.

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

Sat 4:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ BOS is SEA ML +140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 51% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $122 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Chris Flexen for SEA and Garrett Whitlock for BOS.

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

Sat 6:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DET @ CLE is CLE -1.5 +110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 49% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Alex Faedo for DET and Shane Bieber for CLE.

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

Sat 6:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ATL @ MIA is Over 7.5 -115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 57% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Kyle Wright for ATL and Elieser Hernandez for MIA.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Sat 6:35 PM EST

The best bet of the game for STL @ PIT is STL ML -140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 65% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Matthew Liberatore for STL and Jose Quintana for PIT.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

Sat 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TB @ BAL is Over 9.0 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Jeffrey Springs for TB and Kyle Bradish for BAL.

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Sat 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEX @ HOU is TEX +1.5 +105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 60% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $123 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Jon Gray for TEX and Justin Verlander for HOU.

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals

Sat 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIN @ KC is Over 7.5 -120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Joe Ryan for MIN and Brad Keller for KC.

Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers

Sat 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WSH @ MIL is MIL -1.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Patrick Corbin for WSH and Brandon Woodruff for MIL.

Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

Sat 9:07 PM EST

The best bet of the game for OAK @ LAA is OAK ML +135. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Frankie Montas for OAK and Michael Lorenzen for LAA.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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