MLB Best Bets of the Day
Tuesday, Oct 19, 2021
Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.
We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the day's news and lock at the first pitch.
Here were the MLB Best Bets of the Day for Monday, Oct 18, 2021.
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Tue 5:08 PM EST
The best bet of the game for ATL @ LAD is Over 7.5 +105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.
The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.
The projected starters are Charlie Morton for ATL and Walker Buehler for LAD.
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
Tue 8:08 PM EST
The best bet of the game for HOU @ BOS is HOU +1.5 -155. Our simulations expect this bet to win 78% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $128 for every $100 bet.
The calculated optimal bet size is 10 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.
The projected starters are Zack Greinke for HOU and Nick Pivetta for BOS.
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