MLB Best Bets of the Day

Thursday, Sep 23, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the day's news and lock at the first pitch.

Here were the MLB Best Bets of the Day for Wednesday, Sep 22, 2021.



Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians

Thu 1:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CWS @ CLE is Over 7.0 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 60% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $120 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Reynaldo Lopez for CWS and Aaron Civale for CLE.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

Thu 2:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for STL @ MIL is STL ML +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Adam Wainwright for STL and Adrian Houser for MIL.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

Thu 3:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAD @ COL is LAD ML -275. Our simulations expect this bet to win 77% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Max Scherzer for LAD and Kyle Freeland for COL.

Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

Thu 3:37 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ OAK is OAK -1.5 +125. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $116 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Yusei Kikuchi for SEA and Chris Bassitt for OAK.

Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Thu 3:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ATL @ ARI is ARI ML +175. Our simulations expect this bet to win 39% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $107 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Charlie Morton for ATL and Madison Bumgarner for ARI.

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

Thu 4:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SF @ SD is SD +1.5 -170. Our simulations expect this bet to win 71% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Logan Webb for SF and Yu Darvish for SD.

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians

Thu 6:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CWS @ CLE is Over 6.5 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 62% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $124 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 6 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Reynaldo Lopez for CWS and Aaron Civale for CLE.

Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds

Thu 6:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WSH @ CIN is WSH ML +170. Our simulations expect this bet to win 51% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $137 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Patrick Corbin for WSH and Luis Castillo for CIN.

Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles

Thu 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEX @ BAL is Over 9.0 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $107 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Glenn Otto for TEX and Zac Lowther for BAL.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies

Thu 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ PHI is Over 8.5 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $116 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Luis Oviedo for PIT and Aaron Nola for PHI.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

Thu 7:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TOR @ MIN is MIN +1.5 -130. Our simulations expect this bet to win 67% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $118 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Steven Matz for TOR and Michael Pineda for MIN.

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

Thu 9:38 PM EST

The best bet of the game for HOU @ LAA is Over 8.5 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Lance McCullers for HOU and Alex Cobb for LAA.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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