MLB Best Bets of the Day

Friday, Jul 23, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the day's news and lock at the first pitch.

Here were the MLB Best Bets of the Day for Thursday, Jul 22, 2021.



Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

Fri 2:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ARI @ CHC is Under 10.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 59% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Zac Gallen for ARI and Zach Davies for CHC.

Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles

Fri 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WSH @ BAL is WSH ML -135. Our simulations expect this bet to win 67% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $117 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Patrick Corbin for WSH and Jorge Lopez for BAL.

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Fri 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ATL @ PHI is ATL ML +135. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Max Fried for ATL and Zack Wheeler for PHI.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Indians

Fri 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TB @ CLE is Under 9.5 -120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Josh Fleming for TB and Zach Plesac for CLE.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

Fri 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for STL @ CIN is STL ML +150. Our simulations expect this bet to win 49% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $122 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Wade LeBlanc for STL and Tyler Mahle for CIN.

San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins

Fri 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SD @ MIA is SD ML -150. Our simulations expect this bet to win 66% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Joe Musgrove for SD and Zach Thompson for MIA.

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

Fri 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYY @ BOS is NYY ML +105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 60% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $122 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Gerrit Cole for NYY and Eduardo Rodriguez for BOS.

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Mets

Fri 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TOR @ NYM is Over 8.5 -120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $99 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

The projected starters are Steven Matz for TOR and Tylor Megill for NYM.

Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins

Fri 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAA @ MIN is LAA ML -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Alex Cobb for LAA and J.A. Happ for MIN.

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Fri 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEX @ HOU is TEX ML +175. Our simulations expect this bet to win 39% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Kolby Allard for TEX and Jake Odorizzi for HOU.

Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers

Fri 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CWS @ MIL is CWS ML +110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $110 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Lucas Giolito for CWS and Freddy Peralta for MIL.

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

Fri 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DET @ KC is Under 10.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Wily Peralta for DET and Kris Bubic for KC.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants

Fri 9:45 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ SF is PIT ML +165. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Chad Kuhl for PIT and Johnny Cueto for SF.

Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

Fri 10:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for OAK @ SEA is Over 8.0 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 51% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $99 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

The projected starters are Frankie Montas for OAK and Yusei Kikuchi for SEA.

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Fri 10:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for COL @ LAD is LAD -1.5 -140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 69% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $117 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 6 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Chi Chi Gonzalez for COL and David Price for LAD.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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