MLB Best Bets of the Day

Wednesday, Jul 21, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the day's news and lock at the first pitch.

Here were the MLB Best Bets of the Day for Tuesday, Jul 20, 2021.



Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

Wed 12:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BAL @ TB is BAL ML +185. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $129 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Alexander Wells for BAL and Michael Wacha for TB.

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

Wed 12:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SD @ ATL is Over 7.5 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $110 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Reiss Knehr for SD and Bryse Wilson for ATL.

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds

Wed 12:35 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYM @ CIN is NYM ML -135. Our simulations expect this bet to win 63% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Marcus Stroman for NYM and Jeff Hoffman for CIN.

Kansas City Royals @ Milwaukee Brewers

Wed 2:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for KC @ MIL is KC ML +155. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $116 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Brad Keller for KC and Eric Lauer for MIL.

Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies

Wed 3:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ COL is SEA +1.5 -140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 66% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Chris Flexen for SEA and Austin Gomber for COL.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Wed 3:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ ARI is PIT ML +110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $115 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Max Kranick for PIT and Madison Bumgarner for ARI.

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

Wed 5:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SD @ ATL is SD ML +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Reiss Knehr for SD and Bryse Wilson for ATL.

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

Wed 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ WSH is MIA ML +140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Nick Neidert for MIA and Erick Fedde for WSH.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees

Wed 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PHI @ NYY is PHI ML -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 62% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $118 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Cristopher Sanchez for PHI and Asher Wojciechowski for NYY.

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

Wed 7:07 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BOS @ TOR is BOS +1.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 72% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $136 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 10 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Garrett Richards for BOS and Robbie Ray for TOR.

Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

Wed 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEX @ DET is TEX ML +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $99 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

The projected starters are Jordan Lyles for TEX and Matt Manning for DET.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

Wed 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIN @ CWS is MIN ML +135. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Michael Pineda for MIN and Dylan Cease for CWS.

Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros

Wed 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ HOU is Over 8.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Eli Morgan for CLE and Lance McCullers for HOU.

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

Wed 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHC @ STL is CHC ML +115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 57% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $122 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Kyle Hendricks for CHC and Adam Wainwright for STL.

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Wed 10:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SF @ LAD is LAD -1.5 +120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $116 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Logan Webb for SF and Julio Urias for LAD.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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