MLB Best Bets of the Day

Tuesday, Sep 14, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the day's news and lock at the first pitch.

Here were the MLB Best Bets of the Day for Monday, Sep 13, 2021.



Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins

Tue 3:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ MIN is Over 6.0 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 66% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $129 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 7 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Triston McKenzie for CLE and Joe Ryan for MIN.

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Tue 6:35 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CIN @ PIT is CIN ML -155. Our simulations expect this bet to win 63% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Wade Miley for CIN and Dillon Peters for PIT.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers

Tue 6:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIL @ DET is Over 9.0 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 51% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Freddy Peralta for MIL and Wily Peralta for DET.

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

Tue 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ WSH is MIA ML +130. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Jesus Luzardo for MIA and Erick Fedde for WSH.

Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies

Tue 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHC @ PHI is CHC ML +165. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $132 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Adrian Sampson for CHC and Kyle Gibson for PHI.

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

Tue 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYY @ BAL is BAL +1.5 +175. Our simulations expect this bet to win 44% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $122 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Gerrit Cole for NYY and Alexander Wells for BAL.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

Tue 7:07 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TB @ TOR is TB ML +125. Our simulations expect this bet to win 47% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Drew Rasmussen for TB and Jose Berrios for TOR.

St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets

Tue 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for STL @ NYM is STL ML +155. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Jake Woodford for STL and Marcus Stroman for NYM.

Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves

Tue 7:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for COL @ ATL is ATL -1.5 +130. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Jon Gray for COL and Touki Toussaint for ATL.

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins

Tue 7:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ MIN is CLE ML +110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $118 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Triston McKenzie for CLE and Joe Ryan for MIN.

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

Tue 8:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for HOU @ TEX is HOU ML -195. Our simulations expect this bet to win 67% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $101 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Zack Greinke for HOU and Jordan Lyles for TEX.

Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox

Tue 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAA @ CWS is LAA ML +225. Our simulations expect this bet to win 35% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Packy Naughton for LAA and Lucas Giolito for CWS.

Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals

Tue 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for OAK @ KC is KC +1.5 -115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $101 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Frankie Montas for OAK and Jackson Kowar for KC.

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Tue 9:45 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SD @ SF is SF -1.5 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Jake Arrieta for SD and Anthony DeSclafani for SF.

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

Tue 10:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BOS @ SEA is Over 8.0 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Nathan Eovaldi for BOS and Tyler Anderson for SEA.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Tue 10:12 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ARI @ LAD is LAD -1.5 -140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $98 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

The projected starters are Luke Weaver for ARI and Tony Gonsolin for LAD.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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