NFL Best Bets of the Week

NFL Best Bets

Week 1, 2022

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.



Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Thu 8:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LV @ JAX is Over 33.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 67% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $127 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 7 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams

Thu 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BUF @ LAR is Over 52.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $110 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NO @ ATL is ATL ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 39% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SF @ CHI is CHI ML +220. Our simulations expect this bet to win 36% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ CIN is CIN -6.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 60% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BAL @ NYJ is NYJ ML +165. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PHI @ DET is DET ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $117 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for IND @ HOU is HOU ML +290. Our simulations expect this bet to win 34% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $133 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NE @ MIA is Over 45.0 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $107 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ CAR is CLE -4.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYG @ TEN is TEN -6.5 -120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LV @ LAC is LAC -4.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 57% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for GB @ MIN is Over 49.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $100 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for KC @ ARI is Over 53.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TB @ DAL is TB -2.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks

Mon 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DEN @ SEA is Over 41.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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