NFL Best Bets

Week 12, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 11.



Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

Thu 12:30 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ DET is CHI -2.0 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $107 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys

Thu 4:30 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LV @ DAL is LV ML +250. Our simulations expect this bet to win 38% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $134 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints

Thu 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BUF @ NO is NO ML +240. Our simulations expect this bet to win 39% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $133 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TB @ IND is IND ML +140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 44% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New York Jets @ Houston Texans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ HOU is NYJ ML +120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 49% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PHI @ NYG is NYG ML +165. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CAR @ MIA is Over 41.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEN @ NE is TEN ML +245. Our simulations expect this bet to win 35% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $119 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ CIN is PIT ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 48% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $124 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ATL @ JAX is JAX ML +110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAC @ DEN is DEN ML +120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAR @ GB is GB ML +110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIN @ SF is MIN ML +150. Our simulations expect this bet to win 49% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $123 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ BAL is CLE ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Football Team

Mon 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ WAS is Over 47.0 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $101 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Mobile Apps on iOS

Get Newsletter