NFL Best Bets

Week 7, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 6.



Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns

Thu 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DEN @ CLE is Over 42.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 57% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CIN @ BAL is CIN ML +220. Our simulations expect this bet to win 35% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Washington Football Team @ Green Bay Packers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WAS @ GB is WAS ML +340. Our simulations expect this bet to win 31% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $138 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ATL @ MIA is Under 47.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ NE is NYJ ML +250. Our simulations expect this bet to win 37% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $130 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CAR @ NYG is NYG ML +140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $129 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for KC @ TEN is TEN ML +200. Our simulations expect this bet to win 44% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $133 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DET @ LAR is DET ML +600. Our simulations expect this bet to win 27% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $188 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PHI @ LV is LV -3.0 -115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 59% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for HOU @ ARI is HOU ML +850. Our simulations expect this bet to win 20% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $192 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ TB is TB -12.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 57% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for IND @ SF is IND ML +170. Our simulations expect this bet to win 40% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

Mon 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NO @ SEA is SEA ML +190. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $122 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 7.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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