NFL Best Bets

Week 3, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 2.



Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans

Thu 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CAR @ HOU is HOU ML +300. Our simulations expect this bet to win 39% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $155 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ CLE is CHI ML +270. Our simulations expect this bet to win 39% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $143 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BAL @ DET is Under 50.0 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ARI @ JAX is JAX ML +290. Our simulations expect this bet to win 33% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $130 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAC @ KC is LAC ML +250. Our simulations expect this bet to win 41% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $144 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NO @ NE is NO ML +135. Our simulations expect this bet to win 49% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for IND @ TEN is IND ML +220. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $138 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Washington Football Team @ Buffalo Bills

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WAS @ BUF is WAS ML +290. Our simulations expect this bet to win 35% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $135 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ATL @ NYG is NYG -3.0 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CIN @ PIT is CIN ML +155. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ DEN is NYJ ML +450. Our simulations expect this bet to win 33% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $182 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ LV is MIA ML +175. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $115 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TB @ LAR is TB -1.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ MIN is MIN ML +105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for GB @ SF is GB ML +155. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $134 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Mon 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PHI @ DAL is Under 52.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 57% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 3.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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