NFL Best Bets

Week 1, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.



Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thu 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DAL @ TB is Over 52.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 61% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $116 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thu 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DAL @ TB is Over 52.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 60% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $117 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PHI @ ATL is PHI ML +148. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $123 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ CAR is NYJ ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $110 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ BUF is PIT ML +235. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $144 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIN @ CIN is CIN ML +145. Our simulations expect this bet to win 41% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $100 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SF @ DET is DET ML +300. Our simulations expect this bet to win 38% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $153 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for JAX @ HOU is Under 45.5 -108. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ IND is IND -2.5 -113. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $98 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ARI @ TEN is ARI ML +125. Our simulations expect this bet to win 48% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $107 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Washington Football Team

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAC @ WAS is Over 44.5 -112. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ CAR is NYJ ML +180. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $118 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ BUF is PIT ML +230. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $142 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ KC is CLE ML +215. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $144 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ NE is Over 45.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 57% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Denver Broncos @ New York Giants

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DEN @ NYG is Over 42.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 59% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ NE is Over 45.5 -106. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ LAR is CHI ML +270. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $165 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 6 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ LAR is CHI ML +230. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $138 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders

Mon 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BAL @ LV is Over 51.5 -103. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $110 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 1.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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