NFL Best Bets

Week 11, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 10.



New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons

Thu 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NE @ ATL is ATL ML +235. Our simulations expect this bet to win 34% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NO @ PHI is NO ML +130. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ NYJ is NYJ ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $118 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WAS @ CAR is WAS ML +150. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for IND @ BUF is IND ML +245. Our simulations expect this bet to win 33% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DET @ CLE is DET ML +475. Our simulations expect this bet to win 26% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $151 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SF @ JAX is JAX ML +225. Our simulations expect this bet to win 40% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $130 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for HOU @ TEN is HOU ML +340. Our simulations expect this bet to win 27% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $117 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for GB @ MIN is Over 47.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BAL @ CHI is Over 40.0 -115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 61% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CIN @ LV is LV ML +110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 49% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ARI @ SEA is ARI ML +185. Our simulations expect this bet to win 49% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $140 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DAL @ KC is KC -2.5 -115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ LAC is PIT ML +230. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $147 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mon 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYG @ TB is Over 50.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 57% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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