NFL Best Bets

Week 18, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 17.



Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Sat 4:30 PM EST

The best bet of the game for KC @ DEN is DEN ML +435. Our simulations expect this bet to win 34% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $182 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sat 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DAL @ PHI is PHI ML +235. Our simulations expect this bet to win 34% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $115 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for GB @ DET is GB -4.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for IND @ JAX is JAX ML +700. Our simulations expect this bet to win 23% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $185 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

Washington Football Team @ New York Giants

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WAS @ NYG is NYG ML +190. Our simulations expect this bet to win 41% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $118 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ MIN is MIN -3.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 57% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CIN @ CLE is CIN ML +215. Our simulations expect this bet to win 33% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEN @ HOU is HOU ML +385. Our simulations expect this bet to win 33% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $161 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ BAL is Over 41.0 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NO @ ATL is NO -4.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ BUF is NYJ ML +750. Our simulations expect this bet to win 19% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $163 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SF @ LAR is SF ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 41% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CAR @ TB is TB -11.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NE @ MIA is MIA ML +210. Our simulations expect this bet to win 38% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $118 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ ARI is SEA ML +185. Our simulations expect this bet to win 39% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $110 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAC @ LV is LV ML +145. Our simulations expect this bet to win 47% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $115 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 18.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Mobile Apps on iOS

Get Newsletter