NFL Best Bets

Week 5, 2021

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 4.



Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Thu 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAR @ SEA is SEA ML +130. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 9:30 AM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ ATL is Under 45.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $100 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PHI @ CAR is PHI ML +125. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for GB @ CIN is GB -2.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 5.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NE @ HOU is HOU ML +300. Our simulations expect this bet to win 32% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $128 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 5.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEN @ JAX is JAX ML +180. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $117 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 5.

Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DEN @ PIT is PIT ML +115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $107 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NO @ WAS is WAS ML +125. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $101 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DET @ MIN is DET ML +340. Our simulations expect this bet to win 30% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $131 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 5.

Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ TB is MIA ML +425. Our simulations expect this bet to win 27% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $139 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 5.

Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ LAC is Over 47.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ LV is LV -5.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Sun 4:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYG @ DAL is NYG ML +250. Our simulations expect this bet to win 33% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $115 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SF @ ARI is Over 48.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 5.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sun 8:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BUF @ KC is KC -3.0 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $101 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

Mon 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for IND @ BAL is IND ML +280. Our simulations expect this bet to win 37% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $140 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 5.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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